It’s a tale as old as time. As the summer draws to a close and football season begins, fans and analysts alike start speculating which teams and players will be most successful in the coming campaign. TV personalities make outlandish takes and online fans raise heated debates that enthrall the football community before actual games begin. Most predictions end up entirely off the mark, especially regarding individual awards, like the Most Valuable Player (MVP) honor.

MVP is the hallmark of a player’s career, setting them on a path to a gold jacket and a Hall of Fame berth. The award marks a special class of competitors, which makes the volatility of forecasting the eventual winners all the more interesting. However, the pattern of history may lead to a clearer view of the upcoming season’s candidates.

Any time a sport is evaluated, especially one with as storied a history as football, one has to take into account how the sport evolves over the years. Previously, the award has not featured a defensive player since 1986 and has never featured an offensive lineman, so the search for the next winner can likely be narrowed down to offensive skill position players (quarterbacks, running backs, and pass catchers). Offenses since 2000 rely much more on the passing game, as coaches have innovated to maximize efficient drives.

This has increased at an even higher rate in the last decade. Because of this, we can rule out running backs as candidates, though an incredible year could lead to a back winning MVP. Quarterbacks have dominated voting, with only a select few running backs breaking their streak. With that being said, as passing numbers trend up, a historic season could have a player like receivers Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings or Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins become the first of their position to ever win the league’s highest individual award.

A little more nitpicking can be done as to the caliber of quarterback needed to win MVP. Some criteria are obvious: due to the eye-popping statistics needed to catch voters’ attention, any player that starts the season on the bench or injured list, or splits time with another potential starter, cannot truly contend for the award. This includes players like the Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray or the San Francisco 49ers’ Trey Lance. Also, while superstar quarterbacks can come out of nowhere, most players have some sort of pedigree before their MVP season, and a rookie has never won the award. Therefore, top rookies like the Houston Texans’ CJ Stroud and the Carolina Panthers’ Bryce Young are off the table.

The list can be further narrowed down to a select few when one considers that almost every first-time winner was within six years of entering the league, eliminating a further chunk of the remaining contenders. We are left with a group of a select few quarterbacks that have either proven themselves by winning the award in the past or have the combination of youth and high-level play to claim the title as the NFL’s best player for the first time:

• Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
• Aaron Rodgers, Jets
• Lamar Jackson, Ravens
• Josh Allen, Bills
• Justin Fields, Bears
• Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
• Joe Burrow, Bengals
• Brock Purdy, 49ers
• Justin Herbert, Chargers
• Jalen Hurts, Eagles

Now, the list gets a little more subjective. Back to back MVPs are very rare, and so are ones in their late thirties, so Mahomes and Rodgers, while they will be excellent, will probably not generate enough award buzz to win. Brock Purdy has very limited experience compared to the rest of this list, and he is coming off a major surgery and plays for a very run-heavy offense, cutting him from this list.

The dominance of Mahomes and the Chiefs will most likely also lead to Justin Herbert not being considered highly, as his Chargers team may finish second in the AFC West division, which would leave a stain on his resume no matter how well he played. Similarly, Josh Allen will have to compete with a loaded, up-and-coming Jets team now sporting Rodgers for a division title. Lamar Jackson may not play enough to put up the requisite stats, as his shaky offensive line may lead him towards injury. This leaves our last three candidates: 

• Justin Fields, Bears
• Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
• Jalen Hurts, Eagles

Like the others on this list, all three of these quarterbacks have excellent cases. However, looking closely at each player’s potential resume leads us to a clear winner. Hurts plays in an extremely competitive division and had career-high success last year as the Eagles strolled to a Super Bowl berth, but such a level is hard to maintain. Fields, on the other hand, has only played well in flashes due to being surrounded by a lower level team. Depending on the quality of the revamped Bears offensive personnel surrounding him, he could either excel or crash and burn.

Lawrence has taken a much different path. He narrowly won his division through strong play, especially late in the season, and even won a playoff game. He also plays for a team that improved in a weak division that worsened, meaning he has six games to potentially secure easy wins and pad stats. His talent is undeniable, and he has shown the work ethic and ability to improve and adjust needed to stay consistent over the course of a 17-game season.

For that reason, history has proven that Trevor Lawrence is the best bet for 2023-24 NFL MVP.