Key Congressional races to track in the midterms

Tomorrow’s midterm elections will determine every U.S. House of Representatives seat and approximately one third of the U.S. Senate seats, as well as many state governors and local officials, according to Associated Press (AP) News. Currently, the Democrats hold the majority in the House with 220 seats to the Republicans’ 212 seats, and the Senate is split evenly with 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans. 

Kashish Priyam (10) believes that according to current forecasts, Republicans are expected to gain a majority in the House of Representatives due to approval ratings of the political party in power in the executive branch. 

“There’s a statistic that in midterms, meaning between the presidential elections, the party of the president loses around 20 seats in the House solely because of the fact that disapproval of the President and what he’s doing is associated with the party,” Kashish said. “And considering Biden’s approval rating, and the fact that Democrats only hold a five seat majority in the House, it seems likely that the Republicans are going to sweep over in the House races.”

Upper school history teacher Byron Stevens notes that throughout history, this political trend of the political party in power losing seats during the midterm elections has proven to be true. 

“Even if the President’s approval rating is higher, it’s just historically, the party in power always loses seats in a midterm election,” Stevens said. “Things have happened this year where the loss won’t be as bad but it does matter because once you lose the majority, then you lose control of the agenda. It’s gonna be pretty impactful.”

Stevens also notes that if the Republicans were to gain a majority in the House of Representatives or the Senate, the investigations into the Jan. 6 insurrection would likely be impacted or completely halted. According to Kashish, the results of the 2022 midterm elections can also impact the upcoming 2024 presidential elections. 

“Not only is former President Trump implying that he will be running, but there’s division in the Democratic Party [on] whether Biden should reseek election or if a new person should go up,” Kashish said. “Because of this, if nothing is majorly possible because of the policy, and the fact that Republicans will hold one of the chambers, then it will show a huge amount of inaction from the Democratic Party, and because of the very polarized state of our country, that might lead to further issues.”

Many close races between Democrats and Republicans are taking place in the campaigns for Senate seats, including between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz, as well as between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker.

“Elections have consequences,” Stevens said. “This can be a very consequential midterm election, and what’s even more consequential, I think that in addition to the national [aspect] that we always pay attention to the House and the Senate race, [is] what’s going on individual states.”

Naiya Daswani (10), who was involved in a campaign by Rishi Kumar for Congress, encourages teenagers to have a role in local politics through educating themselves and seeking out opportunities.

“Things like reading up on local councilmen who will be running for Congress [or working] on [a] grassroots campaign, whether it’s canvassing or flyers or just talking with others, it was interesting to be involved as a teen in an election where I’m not yet at the age where I can vote,” Naiya said.

Registered voters can deliver their ballots at drop-off locations on Nov. 8 for Election Day. View California’s drop-off locations here and California’s 2022 Election Guide here.